Probability

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From: Glenn Glazer (gglazer@ucla.edu)
Date: Fri 06 Sep 1996 - 22:11:22 EEST

Kevin wrote:

Why is linear probability good? It does mean that game designers that
slept through "introduction to statistics" can avoid producing abortions
like 1st edition shadowrun, but I don't really want to make my game stupid
so the designers don't have to think. In reality, life isn't linear.

First off, I am not convinced of your last statement - it begs a
meta-knowledge I am not sure any of us possesses.

That aside, you hit one of my major buttons. Let's say you have a
non-linear bell curve system that uses 2d6 for to hit rolls. Let us also
say that hitting a moving target is a -1 penalty where you need to roll less
than or equal your to hit number to hit. Let us take Joe with a to hit of 7
and Fred with a to hit of 3. Surely you see that Fred is going to suffer a
far lesser penalty (in terms of percentage probability of hitting) than Joe
will? In fact, linear modifiers will always affect those central to the
bell far greater than than those at the extremes and I do not see this as a
valid approach.

Glenn

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