This is my theory only, something I've had on the backburner for use in a Dragon Pass campaign that I'll probably never run.
I think it's more subtle and insidious than that. I can imagine the Lunar spies keeping an eye out for likely candidates, having already worked on getting an idea of who holds power in which clan or tribe. Once they have an idea of the balance of power they'd work towards converting the balance of power figuring the rest will follow. An easy way of doing this is to help at awkward moments or by constructing an awkward moment and helping:
"Hmmm, you've got a big case coming up at the tribal moot but if you lose you don't have the money for the compensation? How about if we loan you the money to help you through? Nobody needs to know, you'll just owe us a favor"
Sure, Hrothgar won't convert just for a favor of 50 cows at a low interest rate, but it puts things in a different light. The next time a lunar trader comes through he's been worded up that Hrothgar owes a favor, uses it to his advantage, Hrothgar puts in a good word and suddenly the tribe has regular trading runs from the Lunar traders in Jonstown. Sure, there's going to be dissent, but really, that's only to the Lunar's advantage because the tribe is no longer putting up a united front.
Another season down the track and the tribe receives Lunar assistence with their claim against the Evilnasty Tribe over the hill, seeing as their are now on the Lunar Preferred Customer Program (tm) and the Evilnasty Tribe isn't.
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